Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 46k mi example, ~$21.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 50 confirmed auction sales·88 months tracked·since 2015-06·82 active listings
Did our model work? 25% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 12 scored forecasts: 25% got the direction right, median value error ±80%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
39%
12 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
25%
24 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE gold rose 31%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$668) over the next 15 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.92, 24 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 65% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and 30-Year Mortgage Rate, though US Metro Mean Temperature points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-06 → today (11.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $232K━ S&P 500 $422K━ Gold $373K━ Luxury $388K━ Housing $194K₿ Bitcoin ×295 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) GTA roughly 2.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.6× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 45% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+19%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) GTA┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
53
Undervaluation
36
Liquidity
46
Speculation Opportunity
34
Depreciation Risk
64
Overvaluation
59
asking +91% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.