Flagged undervalued because -43% vs 3-yr trend, -8% vs 2-yr avg, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 46k mi example, ~$21.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 50 confirmed auction sales·89 months tracked·since 2015-06·57 active listings
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 13 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±73%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
58%
12 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
54%
24 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Advance Retail Sales rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$350) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.79, 24 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Gold (futures).
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-06 → today (11.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $241K━ S&P 500 $426K━ Gold $350K━ Luxury $350K━ Housing $194K₿ Bitcoin ×310 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Pontiac Firebird (1982-1992) GTA roughly 2.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.7× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 44% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+24%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,223 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.