Flagged undervalued because -5% vs 3-yr trend, -3% vs 2-yr avg, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 47 yr, 46k mi example, ~$36.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 643 confirmed auction sales·144 months tracked·since 2012-07·206 active listings
Did our model work? 52% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 54 scored forecasts: 52% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
58%
12 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
52%
24 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
67%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$1,125) over the next 15 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.63, 25 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and Personal Savings Rate, though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-07 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $130K━ S&P 500 $687K━ Gold $271K━ Luxury $591K━ Housing $233K
Lost ground to inflation. The Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real 11% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 81% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-44%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +15mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +3mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +4mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +13mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +9mo
S&P 500 leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ S&P 500, shifted +22mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Trans Am┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +9mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
47
Undervaluation
45
Liquidity
51
Speculation Opportunity
42
Depreciation Risk
53
Overvaluation
52
asking +47% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,775 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,400 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,999 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-15.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.