Flagged undervalued because -62% vs 2-yr avg, -66% vs 3-yr trend, and asking -22% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 50 yr, 46k mi example, ~$34.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 225 confirmed auction sales·175 months tracked·since 2012-03·3 active listings
Did our model work? 62% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 77 scored forecasts: 62% got the direction right, median value error ±34%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
55%
12 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
62%
24 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
60%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 1% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Ethereum (USD), though Housing Starts points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point down. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-03 → today (14.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $169K━ S&P 500 $704K━ Gold $262K━ Luxury $551K━ Housing $248K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Formula roughly 1.7×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 76% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-32%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Formula┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +19mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Formula┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +24mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Pontiac Firebird (1970-1981) Formula┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +8mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$39,775 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,400 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,999 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$42,999 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.