Flagged undervalued because -18% vs 2-yr avg, and -18% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 12k mi example, ~$58.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 177 confirmed auction sales·94 months tracked·since 2018-12·226 active listings
Did our model work? 42% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 42% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
45%
Low
57%
12 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
42%
24 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
27%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 10%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$609) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.85, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though Real Disposable Income per Capita points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-12 → today (7.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $78.7K━ S&P 500 $352K━ Gold $346K━ Luxury $240K━ Housing $164K₿ Bitcoin ×21 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 40% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 78% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-52%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +11mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +19mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +23mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +21mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +9mo
S&P 500 leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ S&P 500, shifted +11mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +13mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C7 Grand Sport┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +22mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
40
Undervaluation
42
Liquidity
44
Speculation Opportunity
38
Depreciation Risk
56
Overvaluation
48
sell-through 42%sell through rate
asking +19% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sale prices -1.1%/momedian sale trend slope
34 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 3% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$34,500 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,000 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.