Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4
The market for the Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 shows appreciation momentum at 42.29 and depreciation risk at 40.77, with an overvaluation score of 52.63 slightly above its undervaluation score of 48.02. A mild upward signal is present for the next 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.57, all within a volatile regime. Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) is the strongest leading indicator for this market, showing a correlation of 0.88.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 4k mi example, ~$158K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 220 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 2025 · 0k mi | $133K–$298K | $250K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2023 · 6k mi | $99.5K–$222K | $175K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2022 · 8k mi | $92.8K–$207K | $168K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2023 · 3k mi | $108K–$242K | $180K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-18 | 2019 · 16k mi | $84.5K–$189K | $106K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2020 · 15k mi | $84.7K–$189K | $103K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-10 | 2025 · 2k mi | $112K–$249K | $190K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-06 | 2022 · 2k mi | $112K–$251K | $130K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 12k mi | BaT | $78.2K–$224K ($132K) |
| open | 2022 · 9k mi | classic | $77.6K–$219K ($130K) |
| open | 2022 · 8k mi | classic | $80.5K–$227K ($135K) |
| open | 2023 · 8k mi | classic | $77.0K–$217K ($129K) |
| open | 2023 · 4k mi | classic | $87.8K–$248K ($148K) |
| open | 2020 · 7k mi | classic | $80.6K–$228K ($135K) |
| open | 2016 · 40k mi | classic | $77.6K–$219K ($130K) |
| open | 2016 · 19k mi | classic | $73.2K–$206K ($123K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 70% |
| 12 mo | UP | 60% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 65% | Low | 92% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and US Metro Mean Temperature.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-08 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 19 | 42 | 41 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder | 31 | 48 | 34 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,997 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$29,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,997 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$29,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,997 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.