Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4
The market outlook for the Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 is a low-confidence read due to thin data, showing appreciation momentum at 41.42 and depreciation risk at 52.78. The forecast indicates upward movement with probabilities ranging from 0.54 at 6 months to 0.61 at 24 months, within a volatile regime. The strongest leading indicator is the Case-Shiller National Home Price, with a 0.73 correlation and 10-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 4k mi example, ~$144K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 35 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 206 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 2023 · 2k mi | $104K–$228K | $137K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2020 · 9k mi | $84.0K–$185K | $154K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 2025 · 2k mi | $105K–$232K | $192K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2021 · 10k mi | $82.9K–$183K | $91.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2025 · 6k mi | $90.0K–$198K | $197K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | 2023 · 6k mi | $92.1K–$203K | $173K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2022 · 9k mi | $84.1K–$185K | $136K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2023 · 4k mi | $96.6K–$213K | $197K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2016 · 7k mi | classic | $80.5K–$226K ($135K) |
| open | 2016 · 8k mi | classic | $78.4K–$220K ($131K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $112K–$315K ($188K) |
| open | 2025 · 2k mi | classic | $97.4K–$274K ($163K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | classic | $96.0K–$269K ($161K) |
| open | 2025 · 0k mi | classic | $111K–$311K ($186K) |
| open | 2025 · 2k mi | classic | $94.8K–$266K ($159K) |
| open | 2024 · 2k mi | classic | $91.1K–$256K ($153K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 54% |
| 12 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 70% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Russell 2000 (small cap).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-08 → today (4.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman GT4 | 22 | 53 | 48 |
| Porsche 718 Boxster/Cayman Spyder | 31 | 46 | 48 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$27,805 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.