Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.8%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 0k mi example, ~$93.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 62 confirmed sales·64 months tracked·since 2021-03·2 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 3 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±10%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
78%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
100%
24 mo
UP
57%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Silver has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Silver rose 132%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$34) over the next 19 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.63, 26 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 25% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Russell 2000 (small cap), though Russell 2000 (small cap) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $87.8K━ S&P 500 $209K━ Gold $265K━ Luxury $100K━ Housing $135K₿ Bitcoin $108K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 30% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 58% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-35%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Silver, shifted +19mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +11mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +24mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +10mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +17mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +11mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +20mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 6th Gen COPO┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
48
Undervaluation
31
Liquidity
27
Speculation Opportunity
39
Depreciation Risk
50
Overvaluation
66
asking +45% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,865 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-10,263 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.