Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 17k mi example, ~$23.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 621 confirmed sales·174 months tracked·since 2012-01·18 active listings
Did our model work? 37% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 38 scored forecasts: 37% got the direction right, median value error ±14%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
50%
12 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
37%
24 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
42%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Metro Mean Temperature rose 16%. THEREFORE, given its usual 1-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$131) over the next 1 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.55, 40 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 39% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Metro Mean Temperature and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though US Metro Mean Temperature points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point down. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $191K━ S&P 500 $743K━ Gold $261K━ Luxury $670K━ Housing $246K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS roughly 1.9×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 74% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-22%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +1mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +9mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +18mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (4th Generation, 1993-2002) SS┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +3mo
Housing Starts leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.38). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.38). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.38). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,500 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.