Flagged undervalued because -47% vs 2-yr avg, and -48% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 34k mi example, ~$18.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 350 confirmed sales·170 months tracked·since 2012-05·8 active listings
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±23%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 105 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-05-15
1991 · 1k mi
$18.4K–$54.1K
$40.7K
✓
2026-05-15
1991 · 100k mi
$7.2K–$21.1K
$10.0K
✓
2026-01-18
1984 · 10k mi
$12.4K–$36.3K
$22.0K
✓
2025-12-05
1983 · 75k mi
$7.5K–$21.9K
$19.3K
✓
2025-11-26
1983 · 34k mi
$9.4K–$27.7K
$11.8K
✓
2025-11-24
1991 · 36k mi
$9.5K–$27.9K
$19.5K
✓
2025-11-06
1983 · 33k mi
$9.4K–$27.5K
$15.5K
✓
2025-10-31
1987 · 14k mi
$10.8K–$31.7K
$35.2K
✗
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
47%
Low
72%
12 mo
UP
47%
Low
43%
24 mo
UP
47%
Low
36%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Metro Mean Temperature fell 13%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$173) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.43, 50 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-05 → today (14.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $146K━ S&P 500 $740K━ Gold $291K━ Luxury $715K━ Housing $234K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28 roughly 1.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 80% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-38%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +11mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +16mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +12mo
Housing Starts leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ Housing Starts, shifted +4mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +12mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +8mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.39). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +24mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.39). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro 3rd Gen Z28┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +5mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
21
Undervaluation
45
Liquidity
22
Speculation Opportunity
32
Depreciation Risk
79
Overvaluation
41
sell-through 83%sell through rate
-47% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-48% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-46% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -1.2%/momedian sale trend slope
41% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.