Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and -12% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 18k mi example, ~$128K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 63 confirmed sales·54 months tracked·since 2022-01·22 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
40%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Personal Savings Rate has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Personal Savings Rate fell 40%. THEREFORE, given its usual 7-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$3,220) over the next 7 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.60, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $86.3K━ S&P 500 $182K━ Gold $254K━ Luxury $79.3K━ Housing $117K₿ Bitcoin $180K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-AMG GT GT R roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 27% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 53% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-26%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT GT R┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +7mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT GT R┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +6mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,020 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.