Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 0k mi example, ~$389K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 41 confirmed sales·48 months tracked·since 2022-07·2 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
50%
Low
—
12 mo
DOWN
48%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
47%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-07 → today (3.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $82.2K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $258K━ Luxury $92.3K━ Housing $108K₿ Bitcoin $274K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 27% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 58% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-24%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ Silver, shifted +21mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +15mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +6mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +7mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +7mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-AMG GT Black Series┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +14mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,020 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$64,100 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.