Tracking 0 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 5 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~4 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 22k mi example, ~$621K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 30 confirmed auction sales·54 months tracked·since 2022-01·1 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 1 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Housing Starts, though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-01 → today (4.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $141K━ S&P 500 $180K━ Gold $224K━ Luxury $80.3K━ Housing $118K₿ Bitcoin $152K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Porsche 911 Turbo S (993) roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 22% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+19%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (993)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +22mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (993)┄ Gold (futures), shifted +4mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo S (993)┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
