Flagged undervalued because -29% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 100%, and -27% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 30 yr, 45k mi example, ~$295K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 23 confirmed sales·22 months tracked·since 2019-01·51 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1997 · 27k mi
classic
$175K–$560K ($313K)
open
1995 · 63k mi
classic
$151K–$485K ($270K)
open
1997 · 23k mi
classic
$186K–$597K ($333K)
open
1996 · 35k mi
classic
$174K–$560K ($313K)
open
1996 · 8k mi
classic
$200K–$642K ($359K)
open
1998 · 40k mi
classic
$170K–$546K ($305K)
open
1996 · 18k mi
classic
$188K–$604K ($337K)
open
1996 · 60k mi
classic
$158K–$507K ($283K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
55%
Low
—
12 mo
UP
58%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
63%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 49% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and Initial Jobless Claims, though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $706K━ S&P 500 $288K━ Gold $344K━ Luxury $203K━ Housing $162K₿ Bitcoin ×18 (off-scale)
A genuinely strong investment. The Porsche 911 Turbo (993) roughly 7.1×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 5.4× gain). It actually BEAT the S&P 500 by about 145%. It beat housing (+337%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo (993)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +16mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +22% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-29% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sell-through 100%sell through rate
-29% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -0.6%/momedian sale trend slope
116 days on marketmedian days on market
43% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings51
Median fair value$19,132
Avg deal score49/100
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.