Porsche 911 Turbo (993)
The Porsche 911 Turbo (993) market currently exhibits 70.48 appreciation momentum and 70.16 overvaluation, with a 29.92 depreciation risk. While the 6-month outlook suggests a flat direction with 0.5 probability in a volatile regime, the 12 and 24-month horizons signal an upward direction with 0.61 and 0.66 probabilities respectively, also in volatile regimes. Advance Retail Sales serves as a strong leading indicator, showing a 0.96 correlation with a 9-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 29 yr, 39k mi example, ~$283K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 87% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 61 scored forecasts: 87% got the direction right, median value error ±48%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 255 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 1996 · 68k mi | $170K–$379K | $437K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-26 | 1997 · 73k mi | $163K–$363K | $220K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-24 | 1996 · 63k mi | $177K–$394K | $277K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 1996 · 31k mi | $203K–$452K | $306K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 1997 · 24k mi | $229K–$511K | $852K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1996 · 83k mi | $152K–$340K | $250K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 1997 · 29k mi | $203K–$453K | $378K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 1997 · 32k mi | $193K–$432K | $968K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1995 | C&B | $166K–$475K ($280K) |
| open | 1996 · 30k mi | classic | $185K–$522K ($311K) |
| open | 1995 · 63k mi | classic | $151K–$485K ($270K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 87% |
| 24 mo | UP | 66% | Low | 98% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 47% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Gold (futures), though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-10 → today (14.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (993) | 2 | 99 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-176,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-176,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-176,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-56,778 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-95,755 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-95,755 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.