Porsche 911 Turbo (993)
Given the thin data state, this read on the Porsche 911 Turbo (993) market is low-confidence, but current signals suggest a volatile market with a slight upward direction indicated by probabilities of 0.55 to 0.62 across 6 to 24-month horizons. The market shows modest appreciation momentum at 52.6 and a lower depreciation risk score of 42.23, while the Case-Shiller National Home Price is a strong leading indicator with a correlation of 0.91.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 39k mi example, ~$279K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 83% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 60 scored forecasts: 83% got the direction right, median value error ±50%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 249 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 1997 · 29k mi | $203K–$454K | $378K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | 1997 · 32k mi | $194K–$434K | $968K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | 1996 · 19k mi | $228K–$511K | $217K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1997 · 15k mi | $230K–$514K | $500K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1996 · 20k mi | $228K–$510K | $500K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 1997 · 11k mi | $231K–$517K | $390K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | 1997 · 75k mi | $156K–$348K | $344K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-11 | 1997 · 51k mi | $175K–$391K | $320K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1996 · 30k mi | classic | $185K–$522K ($311K) |
| open | 1998 · 5k mi | classic | $315K–$885K ($528K) |
| open | 1995 · 38k mi | classic | $169K–$473K ($283K) |
| open | 1997 · 27k mi | classic | $175K–$560K ($313K) |
| open | 1995 · 63k mi | classic | $151K–$485K ($270K) |
| open | 1996 · 8k mi | classic | $200K–$642K ($359K) |
| open | 1998 · 40k mi | classic | $170K–$546K ($305K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 83% |
| 24 mo | UP | 62% | Low | 94% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 25% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Unemployment Rate, though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-10 → today (13.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.91). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 Turbo S (993) | 6 | 50 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$90,896 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,528 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.