Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and -27% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 45k mi example, ~$28.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 30 confirmed auction sales·63 months tracked·since 2021-06·191 active listings
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±72%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
39%
Low
18%
12 mo
DOWN
64%
Low
0%
24 mo
DOWN
69%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 10 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Advance Retail Sales rose 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 10-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$322) over the next 10 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.54, 27 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $48.5K━ S&P 500 $198K━ Gold $252K━ Luxury $82.0K━ Housing $128K₿ Bitcoin $181K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 61% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-62%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +8mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Silver leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Silver, shifted +8mo
Housing Starts leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Housing Starts, shifted +11mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +17mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Gold (futures), shifted +8mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +0mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,990 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,363 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.