Flagged undervalued because -12% vs 2-yr avg, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 44k mi example, ~$26.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 31 confirmed auction sales·65 months tracked·since 2021-06·168 active listings
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 7 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
62%
12 mo
UP
44%
Low
43%
24 mo
UP
43%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. US Metro Mean Temperature has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE US Metro Mean Temperature fell 16%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −4% (≈ −$1,011) over the next 15 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.67, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $44.6K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $65.5K━ Housing $129K₿ Bitcoin $246K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT roughly 0.4×'d your money (a real 64% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 77% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-65%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +15mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +7mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +12mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +21mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,290 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,946 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,999 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.