Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, and -25% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 37k mi example, ~$30.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 28 confirmed auction sales·62 months tracked·since 2021-06·99 active listings
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±61%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
62%
Low
20%
12 mo
UP
35%
Low
0%
24 mo
DOWN
69%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the US dollar fell 1%. THEREFORE, given its usual 14-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −4% (≈ −$1,345) over the next 14 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.57, 26 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 48% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Advance Retail Sales, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $51.7K━ S&P 500 $191K━ Gold $232K━ Luxury $83.4K━ Housing $126K₿ Bitcoin $169K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 58% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-59%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Housing Starts, shifted +11mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +14mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +0mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Silver leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Silver, shifted +8mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2) SRT┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +17mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
50
Undervaluation
63
Liquidity
49
Speculation Opportunity
56
Depreciation Risk
54
Overvaluation
44
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
-25% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -1.4%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend -0.0%/momedian asking trend slope
27% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 8% of activenew listing velocity
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=35.4)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,595 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,105 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.