Flagged undervalued because -33% vs 3-yr trend, and -15% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 6k mi example, ~$128K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 52 confirmed auction sales·105 months tracked·since 2018-01·86 active listings
Did our model work? 71% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 14 scored forecasts: 71% got the direction right, median value error ±40%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
65%
12 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
71%
24 mo
DOWN
60%
Low
0%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-01 → today (8.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $110K━ S&P 500 $316K━ Gold $326K━ Luxury $213K━ Housing $172K₿ Bitcoin $760K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 18% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 65% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-36%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +2mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +6mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +108% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-33% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-15% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -2.9%/momedian sale trend slope
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 83%sell through rate
27% relistedlisting reappearance rate
60 days on marketmedian days on market
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings86
Median fair value$74,875
Avg deal score51/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$23,800 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$23,800 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$73,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-25,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$73,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-25,412 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.