Flagged undervalued because -34% vs 3-yr trend, -18% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 82%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 7k mi example, ~$123K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 54 confirmed auction sales·106 months tracked·since 2018-01·109 active listings
Did our model work? 87% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 87% got the direction right, median value error ±33%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
42%
Low
52%
12 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
87%
24 mo
DOWN
65%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-01 → today (8.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $106K━ S&P 500 $320K━ Gold $306K━ Luxury $192K━ Housing $172K₿ Bitcoin $799K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 67% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-38%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
PCE Price Index leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +23mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +9mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper ZB II (2008-2010) ACR┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +24mo
S&P 500 leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +92% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-34% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-18% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -2.6%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
-2% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
45% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
99 days on marketmedian days on market
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings109
Median fair value$73,281
Avg deal score47/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$61,933 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-31,684 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-31,684 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$61,933 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$61,933 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-31,684 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.