Flagged undervalued because -50% vs 3-yr trend, and -22% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 13k mi example, ~$70.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 39 confirmed auction sales·103 months tracked·since 2013-01·49 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 14 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
59%
Low
75%
12 mo
DOWN
63%
Low
100%
24 mo
DOWN
67%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $123K━ S&P 500 $600K━ Gold $247K━ Luxury $393K━ Housing $234K
Lost ground to inflation. The Dodge Viper SRT-10 Coupe roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 15% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 80% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-47%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper SRT-10 Coupe┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +9mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Viper SRT-10 Coupe┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +14mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
39
Undervaluation
55
Liquidity
32
Speculation Opportunity
36
Depreciation Risk
72
Overvaluation
48
-50% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
asking +49% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-22% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -3.3%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
59% relistedlisting reappearance rate
100 days on marketmedian days on market
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings49
Median fair value$57,815
Avg deal score58/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,603 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,018 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,731 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-20,004 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.