Flagged undervalued because -3% vs 3-yr trend, and -2% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 44k mi example, ~$48.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 51 confirmed auction sales·62 months tracked·since 2021-09·344 active listings
Did our model work? 31% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 31% got the direction right, median value error ±7%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
44%
Moderate
45%
12 mo
UP
46%
Moderate
31%
24 mo
UP
47%
Moderate
25%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Real Disposable Income per Capita has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Real Disposable Income per Capita held roughly flat. THEREFORE, given its usual 7-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$207) over the next 7 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.75, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 22% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and VIX Volatility Index, though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-09 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $105K━ S&P 500 $196K━ Gold $234K━ Luxury $72.9K━ Housing $124K₿ Bitcoin $186K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 15% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 46% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-16%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +7mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +20mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +8mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +20mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +20mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +7mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota 4Runner (2014-2024) TRD Pro┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
26
Undervaluation
30
Liquidity
44
Speculation Opportunity
26
Depreciation Risk
68
Overvaluation
52
asking +59% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 12%sell through rate
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
asking trend -0.2%/momedian asking trend slope
34 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 9% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings344
Median fair value$38,853
Avg deal score55/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,745 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,498 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,650 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,587 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.