Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +5.6%/mo, and asking trend +0.3%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 56 yr, 29k mi example, ~$133K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 140 confirmed auction sales·200 months tracked·since 2007-07·7 active listings
Did our model work? 66% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 41 scored forecasts: 66% got the direction right, median value error ±63%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
40%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
66%
24 mo
UP
59%
Low
76%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by M2 Money Supply and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though Personal Savings Rate points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $116K━ S&P 500 $707K━ Gold $655K━ Luxury $814K━ Housing $186K
Lost ground to inflation. The Plymouth Road Runner HEMI roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 28% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 84% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-38%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Plymouth Road Runner HEMI┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +19mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Plymouth Road Runner HEMI┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.93). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +144% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+69% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
+31% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices +5.6%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
-4% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sell-through 79%sell through rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings7
Median fair value$47,263
Avg deal score73/100
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.