Porsche Panamera Turbo (970)
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, -17% vs 2-yr avg, and -20% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 13 yr, 63k mi example, ~$29.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 44% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 44% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 135 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 2011 · 69k mi | $17.3K–$46.2K | $14.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-16 | 2012 · 153k mi | $9.9K–$26.5K | $8.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2011 · 136k mi | $9.5K–$25.4K | $14.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 2012 · 87k mi | $15.6K–$41.5K | $26.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2011 · 23k mi | $25.4K–$67.6K | $35.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2010 · 104k mi | $13.6K–$36.3K | $13.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-30 | 2012 · 41k mi | $25.0K–$66.6K | $38.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-14 | 2013 · 78k mi | $16.9K–$45.2K | $32.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 | C&B | $15.5K–$55.3K ($29.3K) |
| open | 2011 | hagerty | $15.4K–$55.8K ($29.3K) |
| open | 2012 · 124k mi | classic | $8.7K–$31.6K ($16.6K) |
| open | 2013 · 55k mi | classic | $16.8K–$60.7K ($31.9K) |
| open | 2014 · 88k mi | classic | $13.2K–$47.5K ($25.0K) |
| open | 2010 · 37k mi | classic | $20.7K–$75.1K ($39.5K) |
| open | 2012 · 87k mi | classic | $13.2K–$48.0K ($25.2K) |
| open | 2014 · 74k mi | classic | $14.4K–$51.6K ($27.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 44% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 40% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 10 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and VIX Volatility Index, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-10 → today (4.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,004 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,004 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,986 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.