Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 10k mi example, ~$48.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 835 confirmed auction sales·147 months tracked·since 2012-08·447 active listings
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 55 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
54%
Low
59%
12 mo
UP
57%
Low
67%
24 mo
UP
62%
Low
88%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-08 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $102K━ S&P 500 $682K━ Gold $243K━ Luxury $496K━ Housing $233K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 31% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-56%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +19mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +18mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +13mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$14,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,399 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$14,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,399 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.