Flagged undervalued because -60% vs 2-yr avg, -61% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 9k mi example, ~$47.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 792 confirmed auction sales·144 months tracked·since 2012-08·190 active listings
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 52 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±40%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
59%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
60%
24 mo
UP
59%
Low
73%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 1% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) and Bitcoin (USD), though Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-08 → today (13.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $98.7K━ S&P 500 $663K━ Gold $242K━ Luxury $631K━ Housing $230K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 32% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-57%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +15mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +9mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,505 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=10.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.