Flagged undervalued because -56% vs 2-yr avg, -57% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 84%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 16 yr, 9k mi example, ~$48.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 793 confirmed auction sales·146 months tracked·since 2012-08·314 active listings
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 54 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
52%
Low
58%
12 mo
UP
55%
Low
56%
24 mo
UP
58%
Low
69%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 10%. THEREFORE, given its usual 11-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$488) over the next 11 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.82, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Bitcoin (USD), though Unemployment Rate points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-08 → today (14.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $101K━ S&P 500 $678K━ Gold $262K━ Luxury $600K━ Housing $233K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 30% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-57%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +11mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +6mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +23mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +4mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (S197, 2005-2014) Shelby GT500/GT350┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,645 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.5)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.