Flagged undervalued because -70% vs 3-yr trend, -55% vs 2-yr avg, inventory -0%, and sell-through 83%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 55 yr, 34k mi example, ~$170K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 833 confirmed auction sales·232 months tracked·since 2007-07·78 active listings
Did our model work? 85% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 130 scored forecasts: 85% got the direction right, median value error ±56%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
71%
12 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
85%
24 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
97%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $126K━ S&P 500 $748K━ Gold $615K━ Luxury $773K━ Housing $186K
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 83% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-33%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +17mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +7mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +0mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +0mo
S&P 500 leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ S&P 500, shifted +2mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +1mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford Mustang (1969-1973) Boss┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +24mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
25
Undervaluation
65
Liquidity
52
Speculation Opportunity
47
Depreciation Risk
58
Overvaluation
30
-70% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
-55% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking +64% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-46% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -2.7%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
new-listing velocity 2% of activenew listing velocity
10% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings78
Median fair value$46,371
Avg deal score38/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.