Flagged undervalued because -49% vs 2-yr avg, -50% vs 3-yr trend, sell-through 91%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 24k mi example, ~$159K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 84 confirmed auction sales·71 months tracked·since 2020-11·13 active listings
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±126%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
50%
12 mo
UP
49%
Low
50%
24 mo
UP
49%
Low
0%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 2-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 25%. THEREFORE, given its usual 8-month head start, we lean UP — about +3% (≈ +$4,337) over the next 8 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.79, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Russell 2000 (small cap), though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-11 → today (5.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $94.1K━ S&P 500 $236K━ Gold $249K━ Luxury $112K━ Housing $145K₿ Bitcoin $397K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Hummer H1 Alpha roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 26% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 60% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-35%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +1mo
Silver leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Silver, shifted +19mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +0mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Gold (futures), shifted +19mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
40
Undervaluation
30
Liquidity
36
Speculation Opportunity
32
Depreciation Risk
60
Overvaluation
78
asking +178% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-49% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-50% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
sale prices -3.0%/momedian sale trend slope
-40% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend +0.0%/momedian asking trend slope
107 days on marketmedian days on market
53% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings13
Median fair value$101,166
Avg deal score47/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$22,300 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$44,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$46,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.