Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.9%/mo, and +2% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 24k mi example, ~$153K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 66 confirmed sales·63 months tracked·since 2021-04·18 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 7 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±9%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
62%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
100%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. VIX Volatility Index has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE market volatility (VIX) rose 6%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$1,169) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.71, 23 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $97.7K━ S&P 500 $198K━ Gold $257K━ Luxury $88.4K━ Housing $132K₿ Bitcoin $111K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Hummer H1 Alpha roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 51% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-26%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +16mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +16mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +9mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +22mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +177% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+9% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sell-through 96%sell through rate
sale prices +0.9%/momedian sale trend slope
+2% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
39% relistedlisting reappearance rate
19 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 2% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings18
Median fair value$112,560
Avg deal score54/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$46,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$35,650 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$46,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.