Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and sell-through 87%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 24k mi example, ~$159K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 84 confirmed auction sales·72 months tracked·since 2020-11·12 active listings
Did our model work? 89% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 89% got the direction right, median value error ±78%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
47%
Low
47%
12 mo
UP
56%
Low
89%
24 mo
UP
60%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 16 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 7%. THEREFORE, given its usual 16-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$4,083) over the next 16 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.75, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-11 → today (5.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $96.3K━ S&P 500 $237K━ Gold $231K━ Luxury $92.6K━ Housing $145K₿ Bitcoin $416K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Hummer H1 Alpha roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 25% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 59% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-34%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Gold (futures), shifted +20mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +9mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +16mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Hummer H1 Alpha┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +16mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
62
Undervaluation
19
Liquidity
33
Speculation Opportunity
35
Depreciation Risk
52
Overvaluation
90
asking +178% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+27% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
+22% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sell-through 87%sell through rate
131 days on marketmedian days on market
37% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 2% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings12
Median fair value$77,578
Avg deal score33/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,505 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$44,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,105 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$29,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,505 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$44,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.