Flagged undervalued because -24% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 99%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 8 yr, 2k mi example, ~$154K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 36 confirmed sales·55 months tracked·since 2021-12·22 active listings
Did our model work? 100% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 2 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
48%
Low
50%
12 mo
UP
49%
Low
100%
24 mo
UP
49%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10Y-2Y Yield Spread has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 10Y-2Y Yield Spread rose 24%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$2,862) over the next 15 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.57, 26 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-12 → today (4.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $188K━ S&P 500 $173K━ Gold $249K━ Luxury $78.4K━ Housing $118K₿ Bitcoin $149K (off-scale)
A solid investment that beat the market. The Nissan GT-R R35 Nismo roughly 1.9×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.6× gain). It actually BEAT the S&P 500 by about 9%. It beat housing (+58%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Nissan GT-R R35 Nismo┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +6mo
Housing Starts leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$32,999 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$32,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-16,985 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$32,999 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.