Jeep SJ Wagoneer Grand Wagoneer
Flagged undervalued because asking -13% vs historic sold, inventory +0%, -22% vs 3-yr trend, and -18% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 110k mi example, ~$25.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 109 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 408 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 1990 · 153k mi | $12.4K–$36.1K | $41.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | 1988 · 11k mi | $24.1K–$70.2K | $87.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | 1988 · 142k mi | $13.0K–$37.7K | $26.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 1991 · 102k mi | $15.9K–$46.2K | $9.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1989 · 101k mi | $16.0K–$46.5K | $76.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | 1986 · 206k mi | $10.7K–$31.0K | $9.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | 1987 · 120k mi | $14.4K–$41.8K | $32.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 1991 · 114k mi | $14.8K–$43.1K | $26.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1988 · 133k mi | BaT | $11.3K–$43.2K ($22.1K) |
| open | 1987 · 177k mi | ebay | $9.6K–$36.9K ($18.9K) |
| open | 1988 · 156k mi | classic | $10.5K–$40.4K ($20.6K) |
| open | 1989 · 83k mi | ebay | $14.9K–$57.0K ($29.1K) |
| open | 1985 · 4k mi | classic | $20.3K–$77.8K ($39.7K) |
| open | 1987 · 74k mi | BaT | $15.5K–$59.6K ($30.4K) |
| open | 1989 · 83k mi | ebay | $14.9K–$57.0K ($29.1K) |
| open | 1989 · 155k mi | ebay | $10.5K–$40.5K ($20.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 57% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 45% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and M2 Money Supply, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-05 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,495 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-15,005 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-10,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.