Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~2 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 37 yr, 14k mi example, ~$145K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 36 scored forecasts: 78% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 41 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-24
1987 · 0k mi
$79.7K–$369K
$427K
✗
2026-09-24
1987 · 0k mi
$127K–$395K
$427K
✗
2025-08-16
1987 · 28k mi
$84.1K–$262K
$157K
✓
2025-08-07
1987 · 3k mi
$101K–$314K
$205K
✓
2025-05-29
1987 · 55k mi
$66.2K–$206K
$140K
✓
2025-05-12
1987 · 2k mi
$96.8K–$302K
$230K
✓
2025-01-30
1987 · 82k mi
$53.7K–$168K
$102K
✓
2024-10-23
1987 · 19k mi
$74.1K–$231K
$133K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 51% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and Initial Jobless Claims, though Case-Shiller Home Price points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2010
$100K invested 2010-01 → today (16.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $133K━ S&P 500 $969K━ Gold $379K━ Luxury $855K━ Housing $233K
Lost ground to inflation. The Buick Grand National/GNX GNX roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real 14% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 86% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-43%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +6mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +15mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +19mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +15mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +14mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Buick Grand National/GNX GNX┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Why We Think This
+24% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
+6% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
+48% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices -3.0%/momedian sale trend slope
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings42
Median fair value$144,636
Avg deal score72/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-100,199 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-100,199 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-99,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-99,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-99,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-99,999 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
