Flagged undervalued because asking -2% vs historic sold, and +2% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 7k mi example, ~$84.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 114 confirmed auction sales·55 months tracked·since 2022-03·1637 active listings
Did our model work? 48% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 48% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
52%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
48%
24 mo
UP
54%
Low
18%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. VIX Volatility Index has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE market volatility (VIX) rose 7%. THEREFORE, given its usual 14-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$1,120) over the next 14 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.79, 25 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and 2-Year Treasury Yield.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-03 → today (4.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $113K━ S&P 500 $183K━ Gold $224K━ Luxury $80.1K━ Housing $114K₿ Bitcoin $171K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Raptor roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 3% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 39% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-1%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Raptor┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +0mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Silver leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Raptor┄ Silver, shifted +23mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Raptor┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +13mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking -2% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
74 days on marketmedian days on market
31% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings1637
Median fair value$64,221
Avg deal score50/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-81,391 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,619 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,849 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,645 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.