Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 34k mi example, ~$195K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 84 confirmed auction sales·108 months tracked·since 2017-06·9 active listings
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±30%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
50%
Low
61%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
53%
24 mo
UP
52%
Low
28%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 21 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Advance Retail Sales rose 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 21-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$3,343) over the next 21 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.60, 31 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-06 → today (9.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $235K━ S&P 500 $365K━ Gold $329K━ Luxury $309K━ Housing $173K₿ Bitcoin ×26 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari F355 GTS roughly 2.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.7× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+36%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +21mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ Gold (futures), shifted +8mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), shifted +2mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +1mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +0mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +6mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +16mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
53
Undervaluation
44
Liquidity
44
Speculation Opportunity
48
Depreciation Risk
42
Overvaluation
58
asking +31% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-3% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sell-through 97%sell through rate
-0% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +0.1%/momedian sale trend slope
0% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
30% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings9
Median fair value$142,489
Avg deal score41/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-60,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-60,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,995 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$113,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-60,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.