Flagged undervalued because -13% vs 2-yr avg, -14% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 87%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 34k mi example, ~$245K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 90 confirmed auction sales·111 months tracked·since 2017-06·5 active listings
Did our model work? 53% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±34%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
48%
Low
66%
12 mo
DOWN
45%
Low
53%
24 mo
DOWN
43%
Low
45%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. M2 Money Supply has historically led it by about 18 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE M2 Money Supply rose 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 18-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$562) over the next 18 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.68, 33 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by M2 Money Supply and Effective Fed Funds Rate, though Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-06 → today (9.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $300K━ S&P 500 $375K━ Gold $330K━ Luxury $243K━ Housing $175K₿ Bitcoin ×33 (off-scale)
A genuinely strong investment. The Ferrari F355 GTS roughly 3.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 2.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 20% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+71%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +0mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +18mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +0mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +0mo
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +13mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +18mo
S&P 500 leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ S&P 500, shifted +24mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F355 GTS┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +0mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
47
Undervaluation
54
Liquidity
54
Speculation Opportunity
53
Depreciation Risk
41
Overvaluation
45
-13% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
-14% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
asking +24% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
-17% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +1.3%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
0% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings5
Median fair value$124,142
Avg deal score20/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$70,000 vs prior
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$70,000 vs prior
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.