Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 1k mi example, ~$109K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 11 confirmed auction sales·39 months tracked·since 2023-07·591 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
—
12 mo
DOWN
64%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
68%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-07 → today (3.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $86.0K━ S&P 500 $177K━ Gold $222K━ Luxury $58.2K━ Housing $109K₿ Bitcoin $266K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford F-150 Raptor Raptor R roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 22% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 51% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-21%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
We map every market against ~35 economic indicators — equities, rates, luxury demand, credit, housing — to find what leads its prices. This market needs a bit more confirmed sold history before those signals are reliable; it will appear automatically as data accrues.
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
34
Undervaluation
32
Liquidity
54
Speculation Opportunity
35
Depreciation Risk
54
Overvaluation
64
asking +76% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 87%sell through rate
sale prices -1.0%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
33 days on marketmedian days on market
13% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 3% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings591
Median fair value$88,239
Avg deal score47/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,256 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,904 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,904 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.