BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, -14% vs 3-yr trend, -9% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 117k mi example, ~$16.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 42% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 42% got the direction right, median value error ±23%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 110 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±21%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 2004 · 100k mi | $10.0K–$22.4K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2003 · 71k mi | $11.6K–$25.9K | $29.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 2005 · 201k mi | $6.1K–$13.6K | $6.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2004 · 116k mi | $8.5K–$19.0K | $9.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | 2004 · 147k mi | $7.2K–$16.0K | $6.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2005 · 70k mi | $10.2K–$22.7K | $21.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2005 · 193k mi | $5.5K–$12.4K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2004 · 152k mi | $6.6K–$14.7K | $11.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2004 · 110k mi | BaT | $8.9K–$25.4K ($15.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 73% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 42% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Low | 74% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Gold (futures), though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW 3 Series Coupe (E46) | 23 | 38 | 49 |
| BMW 3 Series (E46) M3 | 37 | 72 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-17.7)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-736.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=2781.0)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.