Flagged undervalued because asking -10% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, and -10% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 113k mi example, ~$11.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 153 confirmed sales·108 months tracked·since 2017-01·25 active listings
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±24%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 122 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-05-19
2005 · 193k mi
$5.0K–$12.0K
$11.0K
✓
2026-05-15
2004 · 152k mi
$6.0K–$14.4K
$11.5K
✓
2026-03-26
2005 · 204k mi
$5.4K–$13.1K
$6.6K
✓
2026-03-25
2004 · 98k mi
$8.9K–$21.5K
$17.1K
✓
2026-03-04
2004 · 171k mi
$6.2K–$15.0K
$14.3K
✓
2026-01-18
2004 · 50k mi
$9.4K–$22.7K
$23.5K
✗
2026-01-18
2004 · 50k mi
$7.9K–$25.3K
$23.5K
✓
2026-01-18
2006 · 89k mi
$9.2K–$22.3K
$9.3K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2004 · 71k mi
classic
$7.7K–$24.8K ($13.9K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
56%
Low
75%
12 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
67%
24 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
78%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-01 → today (9.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $155K━ S&P 500 $388K━ Gold $376K━ Luxury $387K━ Housing $179K₿ Bitcoin ×66 (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP roughly 1.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.1× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 60% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-13%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +3mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +3mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +16mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +14mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +8mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +13mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +14mo
S&P 500 leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW 3 Series (E46) 330i ZHP┄ S&P 500, shifted +14mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
51
Undervaluation
55
Liquidity
49
Speculation Opportunity
52
Depreciation Risk
58
Overvaluation
58
asking -10% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 100%sell through rate
-10% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
sale prices -0.5%/momedian sale trend slope
-1% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
108 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 11% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.