Blended value of a standard 36 yr, 98k mi example, ~$287K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 49 confirmed auction sales·67 months tracked·since 2021-03·3 active listings
Did our model work? 75% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±41%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
57%
Low
79%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
75%
24 mo
UP
66%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 2% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and 30-Year Mortgage Rate, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $101K━ S&P 500 $213K━ Gold $255K━ Luxury $88.0K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $132K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The BMW E30 M3 Evolution roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 20% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 52% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-26%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +4mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +14mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +19mo
S&P 500 leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ S&P 500, shifted +3mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +1mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +11mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ BMW E30 M3 Evolution┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +12mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
93
Undervaluation
11
Liquidity
60
Speculation Opportunity
50
Depreciation Risk
33
Overvaluation
97
+157% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking +119% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 96%sell through rate
+106% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices +3.1%/momedian sale trend slope
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings3
Median fair value$89,578
Avg deal score58/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$43,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-63,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$43,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-63,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$51,195 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$51,195 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.