We don't yet have enough sold history for this market to model a reliable index, valuation, or forecast. Check back as sales accrue.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 55 yr, 26k mi example, ~$74.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
◫ 108 confirmed auction sales·166 months tracked·since 2013-01·1 active listings
Did our model work? 97% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 29 scored forecasts: 97% got the direction right, median value error ±77%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-01 → today (13.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $193K━ S&P 500 $658K━ Gold $247K━ Luxury $437K━ Housing $234K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Mercury Cougar Eliminator roughly 1.9×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 71% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-17%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercury Cougar Eliminator┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercury Cougar Eliminator┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +0mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercury Cougar Eliminator┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +7mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +127% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 70%sell through rate
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
asking trend -0.7%/momedian asking trend slope
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings1
Median fair value$28,015
Avg deal score33/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$14,999 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,400 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$15,499 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.