Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.9%/mo, and +9% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 2k mi example, ~$79.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 262 confirmed auction sales·67 months tracked·since 2021-01·784 active listings
Did our model work? 57% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 35 scored forecasts: 57% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
58%
Low
61%
12 mo
DOWN
59%
Low
57%
24 mo
DOWN
60%
Low
39%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10Y-2Y Yield Spread has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE 10Y-2Y Yield Spread fell 32%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$2,523) over the next 15 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.74, 37 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and US Regular Gas Price.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-01 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $59.4K━ S&P 500 $224K━ Gold $221K━ Luxury $111K━ Housing $141K₿ Bitcoin $195K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 53% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-58%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +15mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +14mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +13mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +20mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +13mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C8 Convertible┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +4mo
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,982 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,488 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,488 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.