Flagged undervalued because -46% vs 2-yr avg, and -47% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 34 yr, 12k mi example, ~$31.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 408 confirmed auction sales·175 months tracked·since 2012-01·2 active listings
Did our model work? 55% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 86 scored forecasts: 55% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
53%
Low
54%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
55%
24 mo
UP
56%
Low
65%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-01 → today (14.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $110K━ S&P 500 $739K━ Gold $236K━ Luxury $664K━ Housing $246K
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1 roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 25% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 85% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-55%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +14mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +24mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +24mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
PCE Price Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +6mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +7mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Corvette C4 ZR-1┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +11mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
28
Undervaluation
40
Liquidity
38
Speculation Opportunity
30
Depreciation Risk
67
Overvaluation
46
sell-through 86%sell through rate
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
-46% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices -2.1%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 9% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.