The Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI market shows high overvaluation at 92.02 and depreciation risk at 65.02, coupled with low liquidity at 19.3. Despite this, signals suggest a potential upward direction with probabilities from 0.58 to 0.66 over 6 to 24 months, though within a volatile regime; M2 Money Supply is a strong leading indicator with a 0.95 correlation at a 10-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 48k mi example, ~$168K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 119 confirmed auction sales·229 months tracked·since 2007-07·6 active listings
Did our model work? 91% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 91% got the direction right, median value error ±123%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
58%
Low
79%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
91%
24 mo
UP
66%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY).
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $203K━ S&P 500 $727K━ Gold $612K━ Luxury $983K━ Housing $184K
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI roughly 2.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 72% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+11%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +24mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +16mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +101% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+123% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
sale prices +4.3%/momedian sale trend slope
+80% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sell-through 86%sell through rate
33% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
33% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings6
Median fair value$72,880
Avg deal score57/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.8)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.6)
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.