The Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI market exhibits appreciation momentum at 80.65 but also high overvaluation at 95.79. Forecasts signal an "up" direction for 6, 12, and 24 months, with probabilities of 0.58, 0.61, and 0.66 respectively, all within a volatile regime. M2 Money Supply is a strong leading indicator, showing a correlation of 0.95 with a 10-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 48k mi example, ~$131K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 119 confirmed auction sales·232 months tracked·since 2007-07·16 active listings
Did our model work? 91% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 91% got the direction right, median value error ±121%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
58%
Low
79%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
91%
24 mo
UP
66%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY).
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-07 → today (19.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $167K━ S&P 500 $748K━ Gold $615K━ Luxury $773K━ Housing $186K
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI roughly 1.7×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 78% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-10%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +16mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Dodge Charger (1966-1974) HEMI┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +24mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +52% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+80% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +4.2%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend -0.2%/momedian asking trend slope
15 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings16
Median fair value$75,365
Avg deal score54/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-109,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-109,999 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-109,999 vs prior
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=5.4)
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=6.1)
inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=6.1)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.