Dodge Challenger SRT Demon
Given a thin data state, this outlook for the Dodge Challenger SRT Demon market is low-confidence. Signals point to a 57.85 undervaluation score and a 54.38 depreciation risk, paired with low liquidity at 39.62. A volatile regime is indicated across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons with a 0.48-0.49 probability of an upward direction, and Core CPI (ex food/energy) with a 0.84 correlation is the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 0k mi example, ~$139K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 27% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 59 scored forecasts: 27% got the direction right, median value error ±42%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 391 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±12%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 2023 · 1k mi | $69.6K–$219K | $110K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | 2018 · 3k mi | $65.5K–$206K | $90.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-29 | 2023 · 0k mi | $77.9K–$245K | $139K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-23 | 2018 · 1k mi | $68.4K–$215K | $92.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2023 · 0k mi | $72.8K–$229K | $123K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2023 · 0k mi | $60.8K–$278K | $123K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2023 · 0k mi | $74.2K–$233K | $124K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2023 · 1k mi | $67.9K–$214K | $133K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 0k mi | ebay | $58.9K–$278K ($128K) |
| open | 2018 · 0k mi | ebay | $63.8K–$301K ($139K) |
| open | 2023 · 0k mi | ebay | $63.9K–$301K ($139K) |
| open | 2018 · 0k mi | ebay | $63.5K–$299K ($138K) |
| open | 2023 · 0k mi | ebay | $63.5K–$300K ($138K) |
| open | 2018 · 0k mi | ebay | $58.2K–$275K ($126K) |
| open | 2023 · 0k mi | ebay | $64.3K–$303K ($140K) |
| open | 2023 · 0k mi | ebay | $64.3K–$303K ($140K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 42% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 27% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 15% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Core CPI (ex food/energy) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and 30-Year Mortgage Rate, though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-03 → today (8.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) R/T 392 | 50 | 38 | 42 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) Demon | 33 | 36 | 36 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) Hellcat | 41 | 39 | 35 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) Hellcat Redeye | 43 | 41 | 47 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) R/T | 56 | 41 | 37 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) Scat Pack | 51 | 37 | 36 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) SRT 392 | 56 | 33 | 33 |
| Dodge Challenger (2008-2023) Widebody | 48 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,252 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-65,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,252 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-65,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.