Due to a thin data state, this is a low-confidence read for the Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT market. Current signals suggest a high depreciation risk at 93.36 and low appreciation momentum at 9.86, paired with an overvaluation score of 61.95 and low liquidity at 30.01. The Russell 2000 (small cap), showing a negative 0.7 correlation with an 18-month lead, is the strongest leading indicator identified.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 10k mi example, ~$147K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 19 confirmed auction sales·34 months tracked·since 2024-01·38 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
100%
12 mo
DOWN
66%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
69%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 18 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Russell 2000 (small cap) rose 43%. THEREFORE, given its usual 18-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$1,199) over the next 18 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.69, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-01 → today (2.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $105K━ S&P 500 $167K━ Gold $200K━ Luxury $57.8K━ Housing $109K₿ Bitcoin $192K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche Cayenne (9Y0/9Y3, 2022-2025) Turbo GT roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real 3% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 37% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-3%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +61% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 9%sell through rate
sale prices -0.3%/momedian sale trend slope
49 days on marketmedian days on market
12% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings38
Median fair value$105,639
Avg deal score53/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,361 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,002 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.9)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$13,666 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-14,814 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.