Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +1.5%/mo, and +18% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 13k mi example, ~$40.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 165 confirmed sales·147 months tracked·since 2014-04·263 active listings
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 24 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
57%
12 mo
DOWN
51%
Low
58%
24 mo
DOWN
50%
Low
50%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) has historically led it by about 19 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE luxury-goods demand fell 8%. THEREFORE, given its usual 19-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −1% (≈ −$583) over the next 19 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.62, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and Bitcoin (USD).
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2014
$100K invested 2014-04 → today (12.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $99.8K━ S&P 500 $497K━ Gold $351K━ Luxury $497K━ Housing $202K
Lost ground to inflation. The Chevrolet Camaro (5th Generation, 2010-2015) ZL1 roughly 1.0×'d your money (a real 29% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 80% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-51%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (5th Generation, 2010-2015) ZL1┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +16mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Chevrolet Camaro (5th Generation, 2010-2015) ZL1┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +21mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.