Porsche 911 Turbo (996)
The Porsche 911 Turbo (996) market currently indicates an overvaluation score of 80.51 alongside an appreciation momentum of 78.4. Forecasts point to an upward direction with probabilities ranging from 0.52 to 0.56 across 6 to 24 months, all within a volatile regime. The M2 Money Supply is a key leading indicator, correlating at 0.84 with a 4-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 23 yr, 47k mi example, ~$74.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 61% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 72 scored forecasts: 61% got the direction right, median value error ±26%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 694 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 2002 · 39k mi | $50.1K–$112K | $61.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2004 · 55k mi | $43.8K–$97.9K | $90.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2004 · 26k mi | $53.0K–$118K | $75.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2002 · 113k mi | $33.7K–$75.3K | $77.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-12 | 2001 · 29k mi | $52.2K–$117K | $110K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-11 | 2002 · 78k mi | $38.8K–$86.8K | $84.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2005 · 28k mi | $52.5K–$117K | $134K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-08 | 2003 · 34k mi | $51.2K–$114K | $70.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 · 65k mi | BaT | $38.5K–$110K ($65.1K) |
| open | 2003 | C&B | $43.4K–$124K ($73.5K) |
| open | 2004 · 63k mi | classic | $36.2K–$102K ($60.8K) |
| open | 2002 · 35k mi | classic | $43.8K–$124K ($73.7K) |
| open | 2004 · 18k mi | classic | $49.3K–$139K ($82.8K) |
| open | 2004 · 26k mi | ebay | $46.1K–$129K ($77.2K) |
| open | 2003 · 62k mi | classic | $34.7K–$97.6K ($58.2K) |
| open | 2004 · 26k mi | ebay | $45.8K–$128K ($76.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 47% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 45% | Low | 61% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 42% | Low | 70% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and M2 Money Supply.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-04 → today (14.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
M2 Money Supply leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porsche 911 GT2 (996) | 1 | 47 | 39 |
| Porsche 911 GT3 (996) | 41 | 29 | 59 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$35,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,995 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-255.7)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$19,996 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-19,995 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.