The Porsche 911 GT3 (991) GT3 RS market shows an overvaluation score of 55.71 and an appreciation momentum of 55.5, with a depreciation risk score of 39.38. Forecasts, supported by a confidence of 0.935, indicate a generally 'up' direction with probabilities ranging from 0.49 to 0.53 over the next 6 to 24 months, all within a volatile regime. The High-Yield Bond Spread is a leading indicator with a correlation of 0.59 over 22 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 7k mi example, ~$219K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 252 confirmed auction sales·98 months tracked·since 2018-08·247 active listings
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 45 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
49%
Low
51%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
60%
24 mo
UP
53%
Low
58%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the US dollar held roughly flat. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$625) over the next 4 months. Confidence: High (correlation +0.55, 46 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 31% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-08 → today (8.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $82.2K━ S&P 500 $306K━ Gold $368K━ Luxury $203K━ Housing $164K₿ Bitcoin ×11 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 911 GT3 (991) GT3 RS roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 38% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-50%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +56% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 77%sell through rate
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices -0.7%/momedian sale trend slope
43% relistedlisting reappearance rate
32 days on marketmedian days on market
5% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings247
Median fair value$199,825
Avg deal score45/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$28,909 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,009 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.9)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-72,899 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$41,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.