The Porsche 911 GT3 (991) GT3 RS market shows appreciation momentum at 51.06 and liquidity at 52.88, with an overvaluation score of 55.88 and depreciation risk at 45.31. Signals suggest a potential "up" direction with probabilities ranging from 0.5 to 0.55 across the 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, though a "volatile" regime is indicated. The strongest leading indicator is the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, with a correlation of -0.57 over a 16-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 6k mi example, ~$214K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 244 confirmed auction sales·96 months tracked·since 2018-08·121 active listings
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±12%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
43%
12 mo
UP
52%
Low
58%
24 mo
UP
55%
Low
58%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 16 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the US dollar fell 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 16-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$5,343) over the next 16 months. Confidence: High (correlation -0.56, 45 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 79% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, though Bitcoin (USD) points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-08 → today (7.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $80.1K━ S&P 500 $299K━ Gold $340K━ Luxury $213K━ Housing $162K₿ Bitcoin $918K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 911 GT3 (991) GT3 RS roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 39% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-51%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.48). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +51% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
sell-through 100%sell through rate
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sale prices -0.8%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
2% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
29% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings121
Median fair value$182,353
Avg deal score39/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$69,900 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,009 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$46,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-116,995 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,009 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,300 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.