Porsche 911 Turbo (964)
Given the thin data state, the market outlook for the Porsche 911 Turbo (964) is currently a low-confidence read. While forecast probabilities suggest an upward trend reaching 0.63 over 24 months, the market is expected to remain volatile, with an undervaluation score of 55.55. Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) stands out as the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.85 correlation and preceding market shifts by 13 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 33 yr, 45k mi example, ~$293K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 74% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 74% got the direction right, median value error ±133%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 122 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±32%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | 1991 · 83k mi | $134K–$295K | $141K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 1992 · 28k mi | $232K–$513K | $381K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 1991 · 48k mi | $191K–$423K | $337K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | 1991 · 111k mi | $146K–$323K | $382K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | 1991 · 45k mi | $219K–$483K | $246K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-03 | 1991 · 16k mi | $252K–$556K | $405K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-28 | 1992 · 43k mi | $244K–$539K | $233K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-24 | 1991 · 58k mi | $184K–$407K | $195K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1991 · 147k mi | classic | $115K–$322K ($192K) |
| open | 1994 · 73k mi | classic | $116K–$326K ($194K) |
| open | 1991 · 20k mi | classic | $189K–$531K ($317K) |
| open | 1991 · 41k mi | classic | $182K–$510K ($305K) |
| open | 1992 · 40k mi | classic | $201K–$555K ($334K) |
| open | 1992 · 54k mi | classic | $151K–$416K ($250K) |
| open | 1993 · 55k mi | classic | $200K–$641K ($358K) |
| open | 1994 · 30k mi | classic | $219K–$704K ($393K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 74% |
| 24 mo | UP | 63% | Low | 74% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and WTI Crude Oil, though PCE Price Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-74,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,991 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-74,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$48,991 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-108,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$509,900 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.