Tracking 19 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 33 yr, 44k mi example, ~$300K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 45 scored forecasts: 71% got the direction right, median value error ±150%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 124 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±31%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-26
1991 · 28k mi
$224K–$501K
$460K
✓
2026-09-15
1991 · 49k mi
$183K–$409K
$481K
✗
2026-09-09
1991 · 112k mi
$129K–$288K
$200K
✓
2026-08-15
1994 · 48k mi
$170K–$378K
$709K
✗
2026-08-14
1994 · 26k mi
$204K–$455K
$671K
✗
2026-08-07
1994 · 28k mi
$203K–$454K
$770K
✗
2026-07-29
1991 · 83k mi
$117K–$260K
$136K
✓
2026-07-17
1991 · 7k mi
$265K–$592K
$429K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-05 → today (10.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $202K━ S&P 500 $443K━ Gold $337K━ Luxury $398K━ Housing $187K₿ Bitcoin ×154 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Porsche 911 Turbo (964) roughly 2.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.4× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 54% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+8%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo (964)┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +8mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo (964)┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +17mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 911 Turbo (964)┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +0mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 16 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
asking +63% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
sell-through 98%sell through rate
asking trend +0.0%/momedian asking trend slope
0% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
76 days on marketmedian days on market
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings63
Median fair value$315,554
Avg deal score54/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-196,036 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-196,036 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-196,036 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-201,036 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-201,036 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-201,036 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
