The Porsche 928 GTS market currently shows high overvaluation at 73.45 and high depreciation risk at 69.31, with liquidity at 36.14. While a modest upward trend is indicated for 6, 12, and 24 months with probabilities between 0.5 and 0.52, these forecasts are characterized by volatility. The High-Yield Bond Spread is the strongest leading indicator, correlating at 0.78 with a 21-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 70k mi example, ~$62.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 166 confirmed auction sales·116 months tracked·since 2017-02·26 active listings
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 51 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±49%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
50%
Low
58%
12 mo
UP
51%
Low
59%
24 mo
UP
52%
Low
64%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 4%. THEREFORE, given its usual 9-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$35) over the next 9 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.60, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 79% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Russell 2000 (small cap), though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-02 → today (9.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $82.4K━ S&P 500 $384K━ Gold $349K━ Luxury $345K━ Housing $182K₿ Bitcoin ×66 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Porsche 928 GTS roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 40% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 79% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-55%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +21mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +9mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.43). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 18 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.42). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +18mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.41). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +2mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +2mo
S&P 500 leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.40). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ S&P 500, shifted +2mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.39). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Porsche 928 GTS┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +2mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
64
Undervaluation
25
Liquidity
34
Speculation Opportunity
35
Depreciation Risk
62
Overvaluation
83
asking +174% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 92%sell through rate
asking trend +0.4%/momedian asking trend slope
sale prices +1.1%/momedian sale trend slope
121 days on marketmedian days on market
31% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
36% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings26
Median fair value$25,127
Avg deal score58/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,110 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,110 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-43,660 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.