The Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione market shows an upward direction for the 6, 12, and 24-month horizons, with probabilities of 0.71, 0.79, and 0.88 respectively, although a volatile regime is indicated. The market displays strong appreciation momentum at 76.01 and a high overvaluation score of 97.36. The strongest leading indicator identified is the Russell 2000 (small cap), showing a 0.88 correlation with a 7-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 0k mi example, ~$2035K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 34 confirmed auction sales·32 months tracked·since 2024-03·3 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
71%
Low
67%
12 mo
UP
79%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
88%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-03 → today (2.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $127K━ S&P 500 $154K━ Gold $185K━ Luxury $52.9K━ Housing $106K₿ Bitcoin $114K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione roughly 1.3×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 18% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+19%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +7mo
Silver leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Silver, shifted +21mo
S&P 500 leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ S&P 500, shifted +8mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +8mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.86). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +7mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Gold (futures), shifted +6mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +15mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
69
Undervaluation
2
Liquidity
48
Speculation Opportunity
19
Depreciation Risk
44
Overvaluation
98
asking +345% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +1%inventory trend slope
sell-through 95%sell through rate
+27% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
sale prices +3.4%/momedian sale trend slope
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
4% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
29% relistedlisting reappearance rate
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings3
Median fair value$1,225,522
Avg deal score53/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$135,005 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-134,975 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7457.9)
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-134,975 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$135,005 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.