Due to a thin data state, this market read for the Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione is low-confidence. While appreciation momentum is noted at 67.2, the market exhibits high overvaluation at 98.16 and very low undervaluation at 2.0. Forecasts indicate an upward direction over 6, 12, and 24 months with probabilities of 0.56, 0.61, and 0.67 respectively, within a volatile regime, with the 30-Year Mortgage Rate serving as a leading indicator with a -0.87 correlation.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 0k mi example, ~$1856K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 30 confirmed auction sales·31 months tracked·since 2024-03·1 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
56%
Low
0%
12 mo
UP
61%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
67%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Gold (futures) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE gold rose 10%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$1,902) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.78, 18 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-03 → today (2.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $111K━ S&P 500 $153K━ Gold $199K━ Luxury $64.0K━ Housing $106K₿ Bitcoin $109K (off-scale)
Roughly tracked inflation — flat in real terms. The Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione roughly 1.1×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.0× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 27% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+5%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Gold (futures) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Gold (futures), shifted +2mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +10mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +2mo
S&P 500 leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ S&P 500, shifted +17mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +8mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +21mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 17 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +17mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
68
Undervaluation
2
Liquidity
52
Speculation Opportunity
16
Depreciation Risk
44
Overvaluation
98
asking +358% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 96%sell through rate
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
+34% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
3% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
42% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings1
Median fair value$1,225,522
Avg deal score95/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$305,091 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-298,945 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-298,945 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$305,091 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$326,817 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.