Given the thin data state, this read for the Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione market is low-confidence. Current market scores indicate high overvaluation at 96.31 and low speculation opportunity at 14.95, even with appreciation momentum at 71.94. Forecasts signal potential downward movement over 6 and 12 months, with probabilities of 0.41 and 0.36 respectively, before a flat outlook at 24 months with 0.5 probability; the 30-Year Mortgage Rate, with a -0.87 correlation and 5-month lead, is the strongest indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 0k mi example, ~$2241K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 28 confirmed auction sales·34 months tracked·since 2024-03·1 active listings
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
41%
Low
0%
12 mo
DOWN
36%
Low
—
24 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-03 → today (2.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $139K━ S&P 500 $151K━ Gold $184K━ Luxury $67.8K━ Housing $105K₿ Bitcoin $90.6K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione roughly 1.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.3× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 8% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+32%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +5mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +19mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +18mo
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 19 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +19mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +19mo
Silver leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Silver, shifted +21mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 812 Superfast Competizione┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +8mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
73
Undervaluation
3
Liquidity
53
Speculation Opportunity
16
Depreciation Risk
52
Overvaluation
96
asking +307% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory +2%inventory trend slope
sell-through 100%sell through rate
+75% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend +0.4%/momedian asking trend slope
26 days on marketmedian days on market
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings1
Median fair value$1,102,556
Avg deal score80/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$130,990 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-140,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-260,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$280,000 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-179,991 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-140,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.