Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Market Analysis — August 2026
Executive Summary
The Ford F-150 (2021) market is currently experiencing a depreciation trend, with a year-over-year price change of -7.0%. Despite this decline, the vehicle remains a popular choice, particularly in the auction market, where sell-through rates indicate a healthy demand. An actionable insight is to consider purchasing models from 2023, which have shown stronger sales performance and higher median prices.
Market Snapshot
- Current inventory: 1,690 active listings
- Median asking price: $39,990 (historical median: $81,500)
- Price trend: Depreciating (-7.0% YoY)
- Market velocity: 40 days average time on market
PRICE TRENDS & APPRECIATION
The quarterly trends indicate a declining market, particularly evident in the most recent quarters. For instance, in 2026-Q3, the average price dropped to $43,208 with a median price of $42,875, reflecting a significant decrease compared to earlier quarters such as 2024-Q3, where the median price was $109,000. The overall trend shows a consistent depreciation, with the average price in 2025-Q4 at $81,541, down from $106,289 in 2024-Q3. This suggests that buyers are currently facing lower asking prices compared to recent sales.
Auction Market Dynamics
The auction outcomes reveal a sell-through rate of 67.8%, indicating that a substantial portion of vehicles listed are selling. The median price for sold vehicles stands at $85,900, while the median high bid is $78,350. This gap suggests that sellers may have unrealistic expectations, as buyers are willing to pay less than what sellers are asking. The ratio of sold (270) to unsold (19) vehicles further supports this notion, indicating a healthy market but with potential pricing adjustments needed from sellers.
Configuration Value Guide
The body style breakdown shows that the Pickup configuration commands the highest average price of $51,843, while the Crew Cab averages $34,246. Regular Cabs and Extended Cabs have lower values, averaging $30,951 and $19,295, respectively. The price by year analysis indicates that 2024 models are currently the most valuable, averaging $69,810, while 2021 models average $36,774. This suggests that newer models are retaining value better than older ones.
Mileage Impact
Mileage analysis indicates that vehicles with under 50,000 miles command an average price of $62,023, while those with 50,000 to 100,000 miles average $36,247. Vehicles with over 100,000 miles drop significantly to an average of $27,877. This data shows that buyers are willing to pay a premium of approximately $25,776 for low-mileage vehicles compared to those with over 100,000 miles.
Regional Pricing
Geographic distribution highlights that the West region has the highest average price at $50,442, followed by the South at $42,700. The Northeast and Midwest regions show similar average prices around $42,595 and $51,280, respectively. This indicates potential arbitrage opportunities for buyers in the South and Northeast, where prices are comparatively lower.
Market Health Indicators
The market velocity indicates that vehicles are selling relatively quickly, with an average of 40 days on the market. However, the presence of 536 listings with price reductions suggests some softness in demand. The new listings this week (449) indicate a steady supply, which may contribute to the ongoing depreciation trend.
Investment Outlook
Given the current depreciation trend and quarterly price declines, the Ford F-150 (2021) does not appear to be an appreciating asset class at this time. The market is likely to remain soft in the near term, suggesting a hold recommendation for current owners and a cautious approach for potential buyers.
Buying Recommendations
For buyers, targeting 2023 models may provide the best value, as they have shown stronger sales and higher median prices. Additionally, focusing on low-mileage vehicles (under 50,000 miles) is advisable, as they command a significant premium. Buyers should be cautious of high asking prices, particularly in auctions, and consider bidding strategies that reflect the current market realities, especially given the observed reserve gaps.
This analysis is generated from CarSearch.Pro's market database (818 historical sales, 1,690 active listings across 14 marketplaces) and refreshed automatically. It is market commentary, not financial advice.