Ford F-150 (14th Gen, 2021-2024) Market Analysis — September 2026
Executive Summary
The Ford F-150 (2021) market is currently experiencing a depreciation trend, with a year-over-year price change of -11.1%. This decline indicates a softening demand, particularly in the used vehicle segment. An actionable insight is to focus on acquiring models from 2023 and 2024, which have shown relatively stronger sales and pricing stability compared to older models.
Market Snapshot
- Current inventory: 1,596 active listings
- Median asking price: $36,000 (historical median: $76,726)
- Price trend: Depreciating (-11.1% YoY)
- Market velocity: 41 days average time on market
PRICE TRENDS & APPRECIATION
The quarterly trends indicate a consistent depreciation in prices over recent quarters. For instance, the median price in 2026-Q3 dropped to $62,098, down from $100,250 in 2024-Q3. The average price also decreased from $105,024 in 2024-Q3 to $65,302 in 2026-Q3. This trend suggests that the market is not appreciating, and buyers should be cautious about overpaying for older models.
Auction Market Dynamics
The sell-through rate stands at 67.3%, indicating that a significant portion of vehicles listed at auction are selling. However, the median price of sold vehicles ($85,693) is notably higher than the median high bid ($78,522), suggesting a reserve gap where sellers may have unrealistic expectations. This gap indicates that while buyers are willing to pay a certain amount, sellers are often seeking higher prices, which may lead to unsold vehicles.
Configuration Value Guide
The body style breakdown reveals that Crew Cabs and Pickups are the most common configurations, with average prices of $28,101 and $31,285, respectively. Regular Cabs and Extended Cabs command lower prices, averaging $27,702 and $27,326. Models from 2024 have shown a higher average price of $52,844 compared to 2021 models at $32,852, indicating that newer configurations are more desirable.
Mileage Impact
Mileage significantly impacts pricing. Vehicles with under 50,000 miles average $52,290, while those with 50,000 to 100,000 miles average $34,274, and vehicles over 100,000 miles average only $22,497. This data indicates that buyers are willing to pay a premium of approximately $17,000 for low-mileage vehicles compared to those with over 100,000 miles.
Regional Pricing
Geographic distribution shows that the West has the highest average price at $41,960, while the South follows with $38,655. The Midwest and Northeast average $43,840 and $41,571, respectively. Buyers in the South may find better deals compared to the West, suggesting potential regional arbitrage opportunities.
Market Health Indicators
The average days on market is 41, with 498 new listings this week and 556 listings experiencing price reductions. This suggests a softening demand, as many vehicles are not selling quickly and are being marked down. The sell-through rate of 67.3% indicates a reasonably healthy market, but the number of price reductions suggests that sellers may need to adjust their expectations.
Investment Outlook
Given the current depreciation trend and the quarterly price declines, the Ford F-150 (2021) does not appear to be an appreciating asset class at this time. Buyers should approach with caution and consider holding off on purchases until market conditions stabilize.
Buying Recommendations
Focus on acquiring 2023 and 2024 models, which have shown stronger sales and pricing stability. Target price ranges for these models should be between $40,000 and $50,000, as they offer better value compared to older models. Be cautious of vehicles with high mileage (over 100,000 miles) and consider negotiating based on the current auction dynamics, particularly the reserve gap observed in auction outcomes.
This analysis is generated from CarSearch.Pro's market database (1,383 historical sales, 1,596 active listings across 14 marketplaces) and refreshed automatically. It is market commentary, not financial advice.